OPS And WAR, What Are They Good For...Absolutely Something
TOB has become a fairly formulaic writer. A few topics, some ill-timed jokes, and that’s it. Well, that will likely continue, but not today! Today, we tackle some of the more advanced stats that radio “experts” enjoy throwing out to seem as if they are more “inside baseball” than the common fan. TOB considers himself a common fan, and some of these stats have got to go. Let’s start with one that is touted as the end all be all of stats these days.
OPS (On Base Percentage Plus Slugging Percentage):
This stat is not useless by any means, in fact TOB checks players OPS on a regular basis to see how they stack up relative to others. Therein lies the problem, it has become simply a comparison stat, with no value on it’s own. TOB’s biggest issue with the stat is the notion that it shows how well a player gets on base and how much power he has (TOB will be using the pronoun he for all analysis, at least until a lady shows up in MLB. Wonder why that show “Pitch” was cancelled so quickly? We are closer to a real life Star Wars Universe than a woman throwing heat in MLB). That is mostly true, except it overlaps two counting stats. TOB would prefer a different stat, one that doesn’t overlap batting average (both on base percentage and slugging percentage count batting average). This stat would also be easier to quantify for non-hardcore fans. Here is how it works:
On Base Percentage – Batting Average + Slugging Percentage = Bases / Plate Appearance
Another way to look at it would be slugging percentage (total bases) plus walks. The point of the game is to score runs. Getting on base is also important, but you have to advance on the bases to score. This stat would show how many bases you advance per plate appearance. Let’s use an example, TOB’s favorite player, Mike Trout. Mike Trout’s OPS for his career is .979. That’s very high, which you are probably aware. However, you only know it’s high because you also know league average is about .750. It doesn’t really tell you anything about his value other than, “well, he must get on base quite a bit, and I guess he hits for power, or maybe it’s one or the other, or one of them is really high, I just know it’s good.” That’s typically how conversations about OPS go. Let’s look at his BPA:
0.411 (Career OBP) - 0.309 (Career BA) + 0.569 (Career Slugging Percentage) = 0.671 Bases / Plate Appearance
Most players get about 4.5 plate appearances per game. That would mean Mike Trout gains an average of 0.671 * 4.5 = 3.0 Bases / Game
Let’s take the league average (call it Jason Heyward…j/k, that would be generous) to see how that stacks up: 0.324 - 0.255 + 0.425 = 0.494 Bases / Plate Appearance * 4.5 = 2.25 Bases / Game
Now let’s look at a very bad player (we can safely call him Jason Heyward): 0.308 – 0.254 + 0.393 = 0.447 * 4.5 = 2.00 Bases / Game – Steve Gerring, you are needed on Heyward Island STAT
Doesn’t really seem that impressive that one of the best players in the league averages less than one base per game better than the league average, but sometimes a base here and there can mean a run. Over the course of 162 games, that difference is about 126 bases. Take that divided by four, for arguments sake, and that would be 31.5 runs. That shouldn’t be taken literally, but a point made simply to show that 3/4 of a base per game over 162 games can make quite a difference. Baseball is unlike other sports in that a small margin can be a big deal since there are so many opportunities. A football running back outrushing the number two back by 3 yards per game sounds good, but is really much more random, and less significant, than most baseball stats. Also, TOB did not promise impressive results, just results than can actually be quantified! Yay math! Now this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppp3i5m_kOU
Nice that Al referred to it as a squirrel, good to know they still allow alcohol up in the booth.
WAR (Wins Above Replacement):
If people have a hard time explaining OPS, even the most hardcore of fans will explain WAR as follows, “Well, it takes into account offense, defense, and baserunning…I think, maybe just offense and defense. I’m really not sure, but a positive number is good. And it’s a counting stat so it can go backwards from year to year. Also, there are very few negatives so I’m not really sure how they figure it, because if it was really Wins Above Replacement, the league total would have to sum to zero.” Okay, that was how TOB tried to explain it one time, it did not go well. The recipient of that nonsense was likely TOB’s special lady, who immediately assumed TOB just had a stroke. TOB tried to find the league average WAR, and just some random things about WAR and it seems no one wants anyone to know how to find it, they just want to tell you the things they look at to find it. Huey says TOB! Time for something better and more quantifiable.
Follow me down another rabbit hole, won’t you? The point of the game, as explained by TOB previously, is to score runs. Well, some players score those runs while others drive those runs in (while others still, Jason Heyward, do neither). The only thing to be aware of is that a homerun counts for both, so we don’t want to double up. Let’s dig into that a bit with an example. Again, we turn to TOB’s pride and joy, Mike Trout from his last full season, 2016:
123 (Runs) + 100 (Runs Batted In) – 29 (Homeruns) = 194 Runs Created Per Season / 162 = 1.2 Runs Per Game
Harder to find a “league average” for this, so TOB took the 100th ranked player in OPS from last season, Jason Werth: 84 + 69 – 21 = 132 Runs Created Per Season / 162 = 0.8 Runs Per Game
Now the lower end, TOB’s favorite whipping boy: 61 + 49 – 7 = 103 Runs Created Per Season / 162 = 0.6 Runs Per Game…Ouch!
This stat ONLY takes into account offense, so be aware of that. However, this is the ultimate quantifiable stat. Similar to how basketball players keep stats like Points Per Game, this is basically Runs Per Game. Even the most casual of sports fans can see that Kevin Durant averaging 30 PPG is good, and Jason Terry averaging 4 PPG is not good. Most casual basketball fans (TOB is one of these) figures it takes about 100 points to win a game, so scoring 30 with one player is a good start.
The average MLB team scores 4.65 runs per game this season. That number varies from year to year, but is typically between 4-5. That means you will need four Mike Trouts per game, or nine Jason Heywards (hope you have that DH playing!).
“But TOB, this stat favors players who hit in more favorable spots in the line-up!” – Likely Steve Gerring quote when hearing about this stat.
Yes, it certainly does. If a player is worthwhile, he will hit 1-5 in the order (TOB typically hits 7, 8, or 9 in his old man league…for reference purposes). This stat is skewed toward better players, but it is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Rarely does the 7th man in the basketball rotation lead the team in scoring. If he did, he would be starting, same goes for this stat in baseball.
Now this hilarious turn of events:
http://nesn.com/2017/08/rangers-add-on-deck-circle-mouse-pad-giveaway-after-adrian-beltre-incident/
Overall Goal of This Article (Subtle, huh?):
Baseball has a hard time appealing to casual fans who try to check in during just the playoffs (similar to the way TOB consumes hockey and basketball). TOB feels that part of this problem is that many of the newer stats are hard to follow if you simply check in late in the year. Old school stats were easy for people to understand, as imperfect as they were. Growing up, all TOB would hear about was BA, HR, RBI. That’s easy to follow: How often does this guy get a hit, how many times does he hit it over that fence out there, and how often does another guy run across that flat odd shaped base when he hits. There is some beauty in that simplicity, even if it isn’t telling the whole story.
If baseball really wants to appeal to more than just the die-hard fans (TOB does not feel this is necessary, FYI), they should make stats that are easier to explain in under 15 seconds. OPS is a fine stat, but if you can’t explain it without ending the conversation with, “It’s good, just trust me,” then it isn’t helping.
Next week, TOB explains why BABIP is doing more harm than good! Or, another formulaic article! Hooray for TOB’s special lady training for a triathlon, TOB has so much free time!
-Tony on Ball
P.S. While proofreading this article, TOB wondered if stolen bases should be included in BPA since they are also bases earned…damnit! Next time!
