BASEBALL RECAP

While the regular season never really felt normal, the playoffs finally did once the NLCS and ALCS kicked off.  The two best teams from the regular season made the World Series, and a team that’s been in the Series 3 of the last 4 years won it.  Hard to say it was all that flukey.  Congrats to those plucky little Dodgers who have the highest aggregate payroll over the past five season by $35,000,000 (yes, that includes the Yankees and Red Sox).  That yearly payroll puts them at number 190 on the world GDP, just behind Palau and Anguilla.  So nice to see an underdog who has the pitcher of his generation (Kershaw), one of the highest touted infield prospects (Seager), a reigning MVP (Bellinger), a HOF glue guy (Turner), oh yeah, another reigning MVP (Betts) finally get over the hump.  Only in Hollywood could this team be spun as some sort of David to anyone else’s Goliath.  This is like Ryan Reynolds playing the nerdy “friend zone” character that ends up getting the girl.  Wait, what?  Those movies do get made?  Well, good for the Dodgers then.

General Observations:

This season maybe more than any other showed such a contrast in how teams are built.  The Dodgers, built on a huge payroll and many well rounded players (save for Joc Pederson) played a team built from a computer with players that are very specialized (Rays).  While sabermetrics have infiltrated even the best teams, TOB noticed that it not only affects the offensive players, but it helps to hide some warts on defense. 

Mookie Betts was SHOVED down America’s throat for the entire month of September.  No doubt Mookie is a fantastic player, and had two key hits in game 6, the deciding game.  However, prior to that, he was basically Billy Hamilton.  He had a .695 OPS in the NLCS and through five games in the World Series his biggest contributions were walking, stealing bases, and scoring on ground balls to the middle infielders (as well as playing outstanding defense).  TOB has a theory that the reason old school players like Smoltz drool over guys like Mookie is because they don’t exist nearly as much anymore.  Baseball is now valuing one or two ELITE skills (hitting for power being the primary one) and everything else can be average or below average.  Being a 7/10 at all five tools may get you a fourth outfielder spot or a role as a utility man.  Mookie is clearly a 9/10 or 10/10 on most skills, which would make him stand out at any time, but especially now when even some of the players we consider top of the food chain are pretty deficient in some areas.  For example, looking at the top OPS for this past season (that does a good enough job of covering hitting, and hitting for power):

·         Juan Soto

·         Freddie Freeman

·         Marcell Ozuna

·         DJ Lemahieu

·         Jose Ramirez

·         Mike Trout

·         Dominic Smith

·         Nelson Cruz

·         Ronald Acuna

·         Jose Abreu

Of those players, only Trout and Acuna play a premium defensive position (Center Field), the rest are corner infielders or left fielders (possibly the weakest defensive position on the field – aside from DH, of which there are two on that list).  Most of these guys don’t run particularly well (Soto, Trout, Acuna the exceptions).

Maybe this is how the league has always been, but it seems as though with the shift becoming standard practice for most teams it is easier and easier to hide a left fielder and/or third baseman.  Going first to third on a single or scoring from second are still valuable, but stealing bases is nearly taboo at this point.  It’s possible a player may only need two tools to really excel these days, so long as those two skills are the ones we currently value.  In the 80’s Billy Hamilton would be all the rage and guys like Marcell Ozuna would be out of the league (instead of the other way around). 

Various Observations (Similar to General Observations):

St. Louis Cardinals:  They teased us there by taking the first game against the Padres.  Tough watching Arozarena win ALCS MVP when the Cardinals decided to keep Tyler O’Niel instead.  Arozarena will be eligible for Rookie of the Year next season, after having set nearly every major offensive post season record (albeit with many more games).

Trevor Bauer:  As predicted here, Bauer wins NL Cy Young.  Seems like the right choice.  Finished with a WHIP under 0.8, two shutouts in 11 starts (unheard of in the Kevin Cash era).  He willed that team into the watered down playoffs.  Nice contract likely headed his way.

Shane Bieber:  Also reported on TOB way back in September, Bieber wins Cy Young running away.  Stats are heading in the right direction, could be looking at a 20 game winner next year (especially in that division).

Kevin Cash:  This is too much to go into.  TOB has had several conversation with people who agree with the decision (okay, really only one person, TOB’s personal rival – of course he likes the move).  Data may (and likely does) back up the move.  Unfortunately, this is not a simulation where you want to be right most of the time on average.  This is a one time decision that makes all of the difference.  Athletes are, as Tony LaRussa used to say between sips of wine, “Men, not machines.”  They operate on a spectrum.  Snell was at the peak of his talents at that moment, all four pitches were working to perfection.  It seemed premature, but it’s what got the Rays to that point so TOB can’t kill him too much.

Astros Watch:

Final stat lines for our trashcan All-Stars:

Jose Altuve:  .629 OPS / -0.5 WAR – HAHA

Carlos Correa:  .709 OPS / 1.5 WAR – Just got over that .700 OPS mark late in the year.  Had a nice postseason run.  TOB wants to like this guy, but he is pretty much the opposite of contrite about cheating for three years. 

Alex Bregman:  .801 OPS / 0.8 WAR – Finished with just 22 RBI for what is supposed to be a power hitter in the middle of a stacked line-up. 

Further Astros Watch:

Jeff Luhnow is suing the Astros organization for wrongful termination.  It keeps getting better!

What’s Annoying TOB this Week:

Driving ranges that make you hit off of mats starting November 1st.  Come on man, it’s 70 degrees out!  Swinging on mats ruins TOB’s swing faster than a shot of Fireball. 

Bowling League:

The Lounge Lizards are holding the top spot of the Afternoon Delight bowling league pretty comfortably.  TOB’s special lady continues to be the Lounge Loser (lowest score relative to average), a distinction Adam Case held for essentially all of last season.  Big week coming up, need to protect those points! 

-Tony on Ball