FOWLER VS. HEYWARD - ROUND 1

• Remember the good old days when you could get into an argument at a bar with a friend about something sports related and it had to just be the two of you debating and making up statistics until someone either gave up or passed out?  Yeah, I member.  Unfortunately now we have all of the world's knowledge in our pockets for fact checking purposes (Thanks Steve Jobs).  Well, what if Tonyonball told you there is still room for this particular bar debate so long as you pick two players so similar the only difference may the ones opinion of them.  This is the story of Dexter Fowler and Jayson Heyward.  But first, a word from our sponsor!

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Now back to the good part!

So there Tonyonball was, sitting at Bomber O'Brien's in south city (shout out to Bomber O'Brien's, great Sunday specials, good food, free darts) chatting with a friend, we'll call him "Steve Gerring" to save his anonymity.  This "Steve" character is the last person on Jayson Heyward island.  While a great defender, it is TOB's opinion that he would hit about .250 in a slow pitch softball league at this point, with very little power.  "Steve" is convinced this was a very down year and he will bounce back with a solid offensive performance in the years to come.  He and I were so opposed in this view, we made a little wager on the next three years combined OPS of both players.  Loser has to go through a Caitlyn Jenner like transformation...just kidding, but it's almost as bad. 

While doing research to support my case, it became clear why this was so easy to argue both sides of (even after several beers).  Both players have almost identical stats.  However, that won't stop TOB from slanting those facts just slightly and making the case for Dexter Fowler (don't worry, I just put in my first round of "Just For Young Men" so I'm feeling quite confident).  We will do this category by category giving a ranking to each player as we go.  Defense and baserunning will be mentioned at the end, even though those are not part of the bet.  Salary should also be noted, Heyward makes $23MM per year AAV, while Fowler makes $16.5MM per year AAV, a fairly significant difference though baseball doesn't have a hard cap so it doesn't affect a team like the Cubs who are dealing with straight cash homey.

1.  Age/Experience:  Heyward is entering his age 28 season with 7 years experience.  By age he should be in his prime, but his experience shows that he has probably peaked and will at best stay at this level for a few more years.  Fowler is entering age 31 season with 9 years experience, putting him on the wrong side of 30 and his prime.  This category probably favors Heyward slightly, just because he is three years younger and both players rely on athleticism.  Edge:  Heyward

2.  Nickname:  Heyward is nicknamed the "J-Hey Kid."  Super lame and a rip off of Willy Mays' "Say Hey Kid."  Early in his career it was thought that Heyward could be the next big thing, taking the mantle from Ken Griffey Jr.  Unfortunately he has turned into an overpaid right fielder who was benched for half the World Series.  Fowler's nickname is "Daddy Long Legs."  That's amazing!  TOB was unaware that his legs were unusually long, but will keep an eye out all season (note, TOB's home team is the Cardinals, "Steve's" hometeam is the Cubs, this may be the genesis of this argument, that or Jameson, hard to say really).  Edge:  Fowler

3.  OPS:  Hey, the actual statistic we bet on.  What a concept to have that be a category to dissect!  Here is the problem with that.  Fowler has a higher career OPS (.786 to .761), but it was nearly identical coming into last season when Heyward had a historically bad year (even by his standards, zing!).  They both have a peak OPS year of around .850, the difference is Fowler has stayed consistently around his average while Heyward went in the tank last year throwing his way out of whack.  Throwing out high and low on each and taking the average, they are within a few percentage points.  Edge:  Draw

4.  Plate Appearances/Total Bases/Hits/Walks:  Remember when I said they were almost the same player, that's because in their average 162 game season they both have 667 plate appearances, 150 hits, and 240 total bases.  The only difference is Fowler walks about 15 more times a year than Heyward.  Edge:  Fowler

5.  Defense:  Heyward is a four time Gold Glove winner.  That's great, but it will still be hard to convince TOB why he plays right field over center (Fowler in fact, played center when Heyward played right field when they were on the same team in 2016).  Yes, Heyward has the far superior arm, but that can't be the only factor.  Covering ground and being in charge of the outfield outweigh having the best arm (traditionally the best out fielders play center field:  Joe Dimaggio, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr, etc.).  Edge:  Heyward due to the Gold Gloves, but TOB would put him in center field and see what he was really worth

6.  Baserunning:  Both players are known for being athletic, so it was surprising for TOB to find out that both steal an average of under 20 bases.  This part of the game seems to be making a resurgence, but neither of these players have taken the bait.  Fowler steals an average of 19, Heyward 16, both at about a 70% success rate (decent).  Edge:  Draw

So, after all of that, what have we learned?  The final tally is 2-2-2.  Unbelievable...

-Tonyonball