COLLEGE FOOTBALL - WEEK 4

A few weeks ago here at TOB, we broke that college football had started.  Well, it turns out that after one or two good early games, CFB took a couple of weeks off.  Hard to get excited when the feature game involves the PAC12, or has a pre-game point spread of 17+.  Finally we are getting into conference play and the cupcake season is behind us.  Perhaps TOB will have to keep this in mind for years to come…blowout Labor Day weekend, then take a two week vacation to let the mid-level teams beat up on unranked opponents.  Good match-ups this week, but first, another clip we are late to the game to, and were given the recommendation by fan of the site Adam Case:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbZdhl5NI6Y

If you aren’t watching the HBO show “Barry,” do yourself a favor, watch it.  Hader is great, and several side characters that are outrageous. 

TOB is on the road this week.  Not going to any football games, a wedding in Springfield, IL, hometown of TOB’s special lady.  On the drive here, said special lady mentioned to a friend that we were on the way to see her “intermediate family.” 

One last week of cupcakes before the big conference season starts, though there are still some solid match-ups and we have seen what some of these teams are actually made of given how they’ve handled cupcake season.  A few teams of note:

·       Clemson – Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been great, but he’s been very good.  They appear to be the real deal (no surprise) with a replenished defensive front.  Hard to imagine they don’t walk to the CFP.  Also, cupcake season is more difficult for Clemson than the ACC.  How is it possible that Miami, Florida State, Syracuse, BC, Pitt, etc. can ALL be terrible? 

·       Alabama – Congrats, all wins by 20+ points.  They are starting to become the definition of cupcake season.  Won’t have a real challenge until A&M on 10/12.  Back half of the season will be a bear though.

·       Oklahoma – Maybe it is all Lincoln Riley?  OU Has dominated and should have no trouble running through the Big12.  Texas appears better, but still couldn’t beat the third best SEC team at home.

·       Georgia – Big test today against ND (though favored by 14 at home).  Similar to Bama, they are throwing down cupcakes like it’s a race to diabetes (apologies to loyal reader B. Mild).  This should be a test, and even if it isn’t, they will get national attention for beating a top 10 team.  Back half of the schedule also appears to be very challenging – it’s almost as if this team is run just like Alabama…

·       The PAC12 – TOB seemingly can’t get enough of beating up the PAC12, but, “come awan.” – Jimmy from South Park.  Oregon gets hyped up to start the year.  They lose to Auburn, ESPN tells us that actually, Utah is the class of the conference.  If that’s the case, the conference is in big trouble.  A mediocre USC team (fresh off a loss to BYU!) beat them convincingly last night (final score was a 7 point game, TOB watched most of it, USC did whatever they wanted, including terrible turnovers).  Now it will be WSU that is the darling of the conference.  Which, TOB is in full support of.  Mike Leach is the Chip Kelly that lived.   

Further bitching/facts about the cupcake season:

·       Week 1 average margin of victory for top 5 teams:  30.5

·       Week 2 average margin of victory for top 5 teams:  42.5

·       Week 3 average margin of victory for top 5 teams:  39.8

·       Week 4 average point spread for to 4 teams (OU has a bye):  30

This is making it really hard to watch some of the first few weeks of the season.  As much as TOB hates to say it, maybe some sort of preseason would be worthwhile if teams would then start playing real competition.  Unlikely, but this first month has had very few moments worth noting.

Current rankings, by conference:

·       BIG10 – 5 teams (lost 2)

·       SEC – 6 teams (5 of top 10)

·       PAC12 – 6 (one above top 16, that was Utah, they just lost)

·       BIG12 – 3 - unchanged

·       ACC – 2 - unchanged

·       Non Power 5 – 3 (ND, UCF, Boise)

Not much has changed, SEC and ACC continue to be top heavy, PAC12 still sucks, BIG12 is putting all of its eggs in the Texas/OU basket (what’s new), BIG10 is a mystery.  Michigan has looked like crap this year (as well as Michigan State, losing to the dreadful PAC12), but could prove they belong with a big win at Wisconsin in about 3 hours. 

Big games of this weekend with marginal analysis: 

·       11 Michigan at 13 Wisconsin (-3.5) – TOB had Wisconsin winning the BIG10.  They really don’t need to win this one for that to happen, but they probably should since it is a home game.  They will likely get another shot at the end in the title game against either Mich or Ohio State.  A loss here could keep Michigan out of the title game (but possibly in the CFP if they win out big). Not for nothing, but TOB has Wisconsin on a future bet at +1600 to win the BIG10, Cheech has Michigan for the same at +175. I’ll sell that bet to you at +800 right now Bobby.

·       8 Auburn at 17 Texas A&M (-4) – Both of these teams have taken on some big time opponents early in the season.  This could decide who is the fourth best team in the SEC and gives Bama a real challenge for the SEC West. 

·       7 Notre Dame at 3 Georgia (-14.5) – ND is ranked high based on last years’ success, Ian Book’s prospects, and being a national team.  Despite getting blown out by Clemson in the CFP (though it should be noted that Clemson beat Bama by more points in the championship game, though that doesn’t seem to affect the affection for Alabama…that or the several championships in the last decade…hard to tell).  Georgia should win this game, but a loss here won’t affect their hopes at the CFP.  They can still win the SEC East, the SEC, and that is a sure fire way to make the CFP.

 “Countdown Until Urban Meyer Takes a D1 Job.”  As predicted by TOB week 1, Urban is already talking about his next spot.  Urban is not denying, but not “welcoming” invites from teams.  He is already speaking out about how Tennessee is in a bad spot (something he did with regards to Ohio State after his first sabbatical).  Hard to say where his next spot will be, but here is how we will handicap it (feel free to place your bets in person, $4 increments only):

·       UCLA – 3:1

·       Tennessee – 5:1

·       USC:  8:1

·       Remains analyst:  100:1

Though TOB has not been picking recently (turns out, TOB is just not that good at gambling), Robert the Cheech has been sending in picks, let’s see how he has been doing:

 Robert the Cheech

Week 1:  1-4 - Yikes

Week 2:  5-0 – Yeah Bobby (6-4)

Week 3:  3-2 – Typical (9-6)

Week 4:

·       Miss State -6 over Kentucky

·       South Carolina +9.5 over Mizzou

·       Cuse -4.5 over Western Michigan

·       Wisconsin -3.5 over Michigan

·       Northwestern +8.5 over Michigan State

 These all appear to be emotional hedges Robby…

 TOB

Week 1:  2-2 with 1 push – slowly losing money

Week 2:  push

Week 3:  push

Week 4:

·       LSU -24 over Vandy

·       Cal +3 over Ole Miss

·       Auburn +4 over A&M

·       Oregon vs Stanford OVER 57

·       Texas -7 over Oklahoma State

No bets on the ND/Georgia game.  ND needs it worse than Georgia does if they want to go to the CFP, but that will be very unlikely even with this win.  The public is tired of ND going to the playoff and getting blown out.  TOB would be very happy with a 6-9 point loss here, lose once more, and go to a nice Bowl. 

Next week, real College Football starts (I hope, TOB has not looked at the schedule, and in fact, forgot who ND’s opponent was this week until yesterday afternoon).

GO IRISH!

-Tonyonball